Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.011261 0.012728 0.014315 0.016159 0.018245 0.020531 0.023227
2025-11-09 0.008701 0.010668 0.012974 0.015881 0.019449 0.023691 0.029124
2025-11-16 0.007465 0.009677 0.012419 0.016071 0.020816 0.026781 0.034869
2025-11-23 0.006468 0.008775 0.011768 0.015938 0.021613 0.029084 0.039697
2025-11-30 0.005889 0.008311 0.011579 0.016317 0.023030 0.032227 0.045839
2025-12-07 0.005144 0.007520 0.010838 0.015821 0.023140 0.033531 0.049479
2025-12-14 0.004604 0.006949 0.010330 0.015574 0.023531 0.035205 0.053730
2025-12-21 0.004096 0.006367 0.009740 0.015127 0.023555 0.036298 0.057151
2025-12-28 0.003898 0.006231 0.009793 0.015645 0.025067 0.039725 0.064428
2026-01-04 0.003673 0.006027 0.009716 0.015940 0.026235 0.042689 0.071196
2026-01-11 0.003489 0.005869 0.009694 0.016309 0.027537 0.045949 0.078698
2026-01-18 0.003228 0.005560 0.009395 0.016188 0.028002 0.047851 0.084048
2026-01-25 0.003007 0.005304 0.009170 0.016184 0.028683 0.050203 0.090444
2026-02-01 0.002759 0.004978 0.008800 0.015896 0.028844 0.051670 0.095406
2026-02-08 0.002613 0.004821 0.008708 0.016087 0.029866 0.054721 0.103486
2026-02-15 0.002433 0.004584 0.008452 0.015954 0.030275 0.056683 0.109684
2026-02-22 0.002341 0.004503 0.008472 0.016333 0.031667 0.060559 0.119850
2026-03-01 0.002141 0.004199 0.008052 0.015837 0.031336 0.061140 0.123609
2026-03-08 0.001990 0.003979 0.007773 0.015589 0.031462 0.062600 0.129220
2026-03-15 0.001830 0.003726 0.007410 0.015142 0.031150 0.063163 0.133033
2026-03-22 0.001791 0.003714 0.007520 0.015660 0.032841 0.067871 0.145871
2026-03-29 0.001729 0.003652 0.007523 0.015955 0.034090 0.071762 0.157289
2026-04-05 0.001679 0.003608 0.007561 0.016325 0.035521 0.076139 0.170125